Completed project
Understanding apple and pear production systems in a changing climate (AP12029)
Publication date: September 8, 2012
Delivery Partner: The Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries
This project was tasked with reducing the vulnerability of the Australian apple and pear industry to changes in our climate. Its key activities included modelling a changing climate to investigate potential effects on winter chill, tree flowering, fruit sunburn and fruit yield, as well as looking at appropriate adaptive responses for the industry.
In modelling future climate scenarios – both medium and worst-case scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 – the researchers found:
In short, the researchers report that climate change “will add significant variability into the pome fruit production system with respect to flowering and fruit quality”. It is expected that growing regions are likely to experience symptoms of inadequate chilling with increasing frequency in future years, including greater variability in flowering dates between seasons, cultivars and individual trees, and irregular and protracted flowering.
Looking at the Cripps Pink apple cultivar in particular, the research has indicated an earlier full-bloom date can be expected in high-chill locations by 2050, while a later bloom date is expected in milder winter locations by 2030 (with flowering dates delayed by more than a week by 2050).
With an increase in extreme heat days, an increased risk of fruit sunburn is also expected.
The researchers note that while Australian growers are used to dealing with some level of climate variability – and that the effects on flowering and fruit quality may be within the range of grower experience in some regions up to around 2030 – by 2050 growers will be operating outside of current experience.
Key findings included:
The researchers also recommended:
The project produced an interactive chill calculator, to enable growers to calculate winter chill accumulation in their region during dormancy – find it at https://grf-smartfarm.dpi.qld.gov.au/shiny/apps/chillcalculator/.
This project was a strategic levy investment in the Hort Innovation Apple and Pear Fund
© 2026 Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited.
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