Smarter crop forecasts set to transform Australia’s macadamia industry

Australian macadamia growers and industry stakeholders are set to benefit from a recently renewed research initiative aimed at delivering both annual and long-term crop forecasts to support strategic planning, risk management and sustainable industry growth.  

Co-funded by Hort Innovation and led by Queensland Department of Primary Industries (QDPI), the Macadamia Crop Forecasting project (MC24009) will deliver climate-adjusted crop forecasts for the 2026, 2027, and 2028 seasons, along with long-term projections out to 10 years for the Australian macadamia industry. These insights will help maintain market confidence, support price stability, and enable effective scheduling of processing and infrastructure as the industry continues to expand. 

Hort Innovation CEO Brett Fifield said the project will deliver practical benefits for growers and the broader industry: 

“With more accurate forecasts, growers can make informed decisions about harvest timing, resource use, and marketing. This means they can better manage risks, respond to changing conditions, and ultimately strengthen their businesses and the industry as a whole.”  

Over the next three years , the project team will work closely with Macadamia growers to identify additional variables that could improve forecast accuracy and support model development and validation. This collaboration will help ensure the model reflects real industry conditions and continues to deliver value to the macadamia industry.  

The project builds on more than 25 years of successful macadamia crop forecasting and will deliver an improved forecasting model and operating manual, designed to ensure the model’s continuity and accuracy into the future, preserving its legacy while supporting long term industry planning.  

Principal Biometrician David Mayer, who leads the project at QDPI, said: “Our team is focused on delivering forecasts growers can trust. By combining decades of experience with industry collaboration and the development of data science methods, we’re helping growers plan ahead, adapt to seasonal challenges, and make the most of every opportunity.” 

This project is funded by Hort Innovation, using the Macadamia research and development levy and contributions from the Australian Government, and the Queensland Government.