This project delivered a practical economic framework to help the horticulture industry better understand what drives productivity and what is at stake if innovation adoption accelerates or slows. The research quantified the potential industry‑wide value of productivity‑enhancing technologies and showed that faster uptake could deliver significant long‑term benefits for growers and the broader sector.

The project developed an economic modelling framework that brought together key drivers of productivity. The model examined historical productivity performance and tested different future scenarios based on the adoption of new technologies and practices. It focused on four main areas: understanding production costs and profitability, automated farm data collection, the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to support decision‑making, and increased mechanisation and automation across production, packing and transport.

The project addressed a major challenge facing Australian horticulture: the need to lift productivity to remain profitable and competitive in the face of rising costs, labour constraints and global market pressure. Productivity growth has historically been modest and difficult to measure, limiting the industry’s ability to plan and invest with confidence.

The modelling showed that faster adoption of productivity‑enhancing innovations could substantially increase industry value over time, while slower uptake would leave significant value unrealised. For growers and industry leaders, the framework provides a common way to assess productivity drivers, compare scenarios and target actions that support stronger, more sustainable growth across horticulture.

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Read a summarised version of the findings here.

Access the model guide here.

Access the model spreadsheet here.