The Horticulture Australia Limited Industry Forum, held on November 18, 2009, featured presentations from experts on climate change. The information below is a summary of the key points from Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries' senior principal horticulturist Peter Deuter' presentation on Horticulture and the Climate Change Challenge.

What are we looking at?

Farmers deal with climate variability every day of the week and are constantly adapting their farming practices to accommodate changes in environmental conditions. They always have done.

Looking ahead, growers will need to continue to manage the changes to environmental conditions within an increasingly variable climate.  Moderate  temperature increases over the next 20 years are predicted to be approximately 1°C warmer than it is now at any given time of year.  Significantly, the number of hotter days will also increase in number.  For example, Mildura currently experiences temperatures greater than 35°C on 31.8 days per year.  In 2030 the number of 35°C-plus days is projected to be 38.5. 
Similarly St George, Queensland will go from 46.7 35°C-plus days to 63.1 days per year.

On top of this, rainfall events are expected to become polarised based on geography.  Essentially the north is expected to become wetter while the south is expected to become increasingly dry, however predictions show an overall drop in rainfall across Australia.  For example, by 2030 Brisbane's annual rainfall is predicted to have dropped by 3 per cent annually, with a 6 per cent drop in winter and spring.  Perth is facing even dryer times with a predicted average drop of 6 per cent, including a 9 per cent reduction in spring.

What do we do?

The simplest adaptation strategies are already being employed by growers, which has enabled them to maintain production levels in current locations.  Some measures taken include:

•  Planting more adaptable cultivars
• Changing the time of year for planting
• Improving practices such as irrigation and integrated pest management
• Growers are adapting to the climate quite well and will continue to do this autonomously until around 2030,"

 Peter Deuter said.

Carbon footprinting?

According to Peter Deuter carbon footprinting is still a hot topic and there are benefits in growers proactively pursuing it for their business.

"It could have an implication on exports in the future as there's a growing trend in Europe and the US at the moment for products to feature their carbon footprint," Peter says.

"Tesco in the UK has begun using a footprint logo on products in store to promote the concept of carbon footprint awareness to consumers.  Similarly, Wal-Mart in the US has instigated a Greenhouse Gas Scorecard.

Should horticulture proceed with calculating carbon footprints for each of its individual products, it will compare extremely favourably to other food sectors' green house gas (GHG) emissions. Beef emits 10,571 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e-) per $1 million of revenue while fruit emits 33.7 CO2e- and vegetables emit just 18.8 CO2e- per $1 million of revenue, according to a study published by the Australian Farm Institute in 2008.

Why reduce this very small footprint?  

The main source of GHGs from horticulture production is nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertiliser use. The motivating forces behind attempting to reduce horticulture’s carbon footprint are:  

• Climate change and carbon footprints are hot topics with the media, policy makers and the community.  The industry needs to engage with the media, policy makers and the community using factual information about GHG emissions.
• Carbon footprinting has some similarities with the introduction of quality assurance "the industry sees a need to be well-placed to proactively respond to consumers' "need" for carbon footprint labeling.
• Reducing the carbon footprint would have benefits to growers through efficiencies and subsequent cost savings on fuel, electricity and nitrogen fertilisers.
  

The lowest GHG emitters in horticulture will be those farming systems which minimise tillage operations and better manage nitrogen fertiliser applications.

The Horticulture Climate Change Action Plan

The Horticulture Climate Change Action Plan was produced as a component of the Across Industry project Australian Horticulture's Response to Climate Change and Climate Variability. The action plan focuses on three areas: adaptation, mitigation and awareness and communication, and details the desired outcomes, priorities and actions that need to be implemented in order to increase the resilience of the horticulture industry into the future.

The plan is available at the climate section of the HAL website -

http://www.horticulture.com.au/areas_of_Investment/Environment/Climate/climate_change_action_plan.asp?src=side 

A major challenge for the horticulture industry is to identify current "at risk" locations and then develop adaptation strategies for the crops at those locations.
It is estimated that until about 2030, growers in most horticultural industries and regions will continue to adapt well to ongoing climate change, through their current mechanisms of responding to risk.  Currently this has been to utilise all the well understood technologies such as very efficient irrigation and pest management systems, modern high yielding cultivars which are acceptable to the market, and changing planting and harvest times in response to changes in temperature and rainfall.

Certainly after 2030 the industry will require more than just autonomous adaptation, and right now the industry has the opportunity to gear up for the challenges of the future.  Between now and about 2030, a more proactive approach to adapting to another 1-2°C increase in temperature will need be part of the R&D plans of the majority of Australia's horticulture industries.